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tmua.me Extreme Set C Paper 2 · Q16

Paper 2Probability

Four coins A,B,C,DA,B,C,D are tossed independently. Each coin has a fixed probability of heads strictly between 00 and 11, and coin AA has probability 1/31/3 of heads.

The probability of no heads equals the probability of four heads. The probability of exactly one head equals the probability of exactly three heads.

What is the greatest possible probability that coin AA shows heads, given that exactly two of the four coins show heads?

A19\dfrac19
B27\dfrac27
C15\dfrac15
D13\dfrac13
E718\dfrac7{18}
F12\dfrac12

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