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Gerard Sayson TMUA Mock Paper 1 · Q7

Paper 1Probability

A coin is known to be either fair or biased, in which case the probability of heads is 0.60.6. Before any tosses are made, the probability that the coin is biased is pp, where 0≤p≤10\le p\le1.

The coin is tossed 5 times and lands on heads exactly 3 times. What is the probability that the coin is biased?

A3456p3125+331p\frac{3456p}{3125+331p}
B3125(1−p)3125+331p\frac{3125(1-p)}{3125+331p}
C216625\frac{216}{625}
D216625p\frac{216}{625}p
E3456p8125−4669p\frac{3456p}{8125-4669p}

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